Bitcoin Whales Exit $945M in ETFs – Can BTC Break Above $85K?
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing mounting resistance below $84,000, struggling to break above $85,000 as market volatility rises. A key reason for this sluggish price action is the ongoing sell-off in Bitcoin spot ETFs, which have seen outflows exceeding $945 million in recent weeks. This marks the fifth consecutive week of institutional selling, adding pressure on BTC.
Investor sentiment remains weak, as reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which currently stands at 22 (Fear). The uncertainty stems from multiple factors, including fears of U.S. recession risks, Trump’s trade policies, and regulatory uncertainty in the crypto sector.
Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin briefly rebounded by 4.33%, driven by optimism around Senator Cynthia Lummis’ Bitcoin Act, which suggests that the U.S. government should accumulate BTC as a strategic reserve asset.
Key Market Insights:
- Bitcoin struggles below $84K as ETF outflows hit $945M.
- Market sentiment remains fearful, keeping investors cautious.
- BTC rebounds 4.33% on U.S. government Bitcoin reserve speculation.
Fed’s Rate Decision & Geopolitical Tensions Could Drive BTC’s Next Move
Bitcoin’s next major price move could be determined by the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on March 19. Investors are closely watching U.S. Retail Sales data and the FOMC meeting, as any signals of a dovish stance could boost Bitcoin.
A rate cut would increase liquidity, potentially fueling BTC’s next rally. However, if the Fed maintains a strict stance, it could trigger a fresh wave of selling pressure, especially amid Nasdaq’s continued weakness.
Historically, Bitcoin follows Nasdaq’s trend. When the Nasdaq falls, BTC tends to drop at a higher magnitude (often 2x). Tech stocks and Bitcoin are both considered high-risk assets, meaning institutional investors often treat them similarly.
Geopolitical tensions are also in focus. Trump’s tariff policies and potential trade restrictions could further impact market sentiment. Any escalation in U.S. economic policies may influence the Fed’s next move, directly affecting Bitcoin’s trajectory.
What to Watch:
- FOMC meeting outcome – A dovish stance could drive BTC higher.
- Nasdaq correlation – Stock market weakness could lead to BTC declines.
- Geopolitical risks – Trade wars and global uncertainty may fuel volatility.
Bitcoin’s Correlation With Nasdaq Poses Downside Risks
Bitcoin’s price remains closely tied to U.S. stock market performance, particularly the Nasdaq index, which has dropped 12% in recent weeks. Historically, BTC tends to decline twice as much as Nasdaq, implying a potential 24% BTC drop to $65,000 if the tech index extends its slide.
If Nasdaq declines further by 20%, Bitcoin could fall to $55,000, while a full-blown bear market in stocks—potentially a 40% Nasdaq crash—could send BTC tumbling toward $20,000, according to economist Peter Schiff. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone warns that BTC could even drop to $10,000 if gold continues to outperform.
Meanwhile, gold prices have surged 13% since December 2023, strengthening its position as a safe-haven asset. Schiff predicts that if Nasdaq crashes by 40%, gold could climb above $3,800 per ounce, drawing more institutional investors away from Bitcoin.
Key Takeaways:
- Nasdaq’s 12% decline hints at potential BTC drop to $65K.
- Economists warn of Bitcoin falling to $20K–$10K in a bear market.
- Gold’s 13% rally challenges BTC’s store-of-value appeal.
Bitcoin Consolidates Near $83K – Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading near $83,200, consolidating within a symmetrical triangle on the 2-hour chart. The 50-period EMA at $83,490 is acting as immediate resistance, while the trendline support near $82,050 is keeping prices stable. A breakout from this formation is imminent, with key resistance at $85,038—a break above this could push BTC toward $87,400 and $90,295.
On the downside, $82,050 remains a crucial support level. If BTC breaks below this level, the next key supports are $79,050 and $76,600.
Bitcoin remains indecisive ahead of the FOMC meeting on March 19, with traders watching for a breakout. A volume-backed move above $85,000 could confirm bullish momentum, while failure to hold support may lead to a sharper correction.
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